The Decline Effect

The Decline Effect
Author :
Publisher : FriesenPress
Total Pages : 897
Release :
ISBN-10 : 9781039151888
ISBN-13 : 1039151884
Rating : 4/5 (884 Downloads)

Book Synopsis The Decline Effect by : Dean Brooks

Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.


The Decline Effect Related Books

The Decline Effect
Language: en
Pages: 897
Authors: Dean Brooks
Categories: Mathematics
Type: BOOK - Published: - Publisher: FriesenPress

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian dist
Psychological Science Under Scrutiny
Language: en
Pages: 444
Authors: Scott O. Lilienfeld
Categories: Psychology
Type: BOOK - Published: 2017-01-03 - Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Psychological Science Under Scrutiny explores a range of contemporary challenges to the assumptions and methodologies of psychology, in order to encourage debat
The Brussels Effect
Language: en
Pages: 425
Authors: Anu Bradford
Categories: Law
Type: BOOK - Published: 2020-01-27 - Publisher: Oxford University Press

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

For many observers, the European Union is mired in a deep crisis. Between sluggish growth; political turmoil following a decade of austerity politics; Brexit; a
Neural Dynamics of Neurological Disease
Language: en
Pages: 416
Authors: Christopher A. Shaw
Categories: Medical
Type: BOOK - Published: 2017-04-17 - Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The emerging understanding of age-related neurological disorders suggests that notions of a single causal gene/toxin being responsible is likely incorrect. Neur
Future Forest Resource of Western and Eastern Europe
Language: en
Pages: 514
Authors: S. Nilsson
Categories: Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 1992-01-15 - Publisher: CRC Press

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This work conveys the timber assessment of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Forest Study for Western and Eastern Europe, not inc